Arthur Hayes’ Analysis: Trump’s Trade Order and the Shift Towards Gold and Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes’ Analysis: Trump’s Trade Order and the Shift Towards Gold and Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes, a co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has offered a compelling analysis of the potential ramifications of Donald Trump’s new trade order implemented in April 2025. Hayes posits that these sweeping tariffs will instigate a series of economic consequences, including global imbalances and increased monetary easing by central banks, ultimately leading to a devaluation of fiat currencies.

In this environment, Hayes argues for a strategic shift towards gold and Bitcoin, positioning them as attractive alternatives and hedges against the anticipated volatility in traditional markets. Expert opinions on the impact of this trade order on gold generally align with Hayes’ view, anticipating a rise in its value due to increased safe-haven demand.

The outlook for Bitcoin is more varied, with some analysts predicting short-term turbulence but acknowledging its potential as a long-term beneficiary of macroeconomic instability. The initial market reaction saw significant declines in equity markets, while Bitcoin demonstrated a degree of resilience, hinting at a possible decoupling from traditional assets, as suggested by Hayes.

This report delves into the specifics of Trump’s trade order, dissects Hayes’ rationale for favoring gold and Bitcoin, examines expert perspectives on these assets, analyzes the broader market response, and provides an SEO optimization strategy for content related to this critical analysis.

2. The New Trade Order by Donald Trump: An Overview:

2.1 Announcement and Key Features: On April 2nd, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a new executive order, proclaiming “Liberation Day” for American trade and declaring a national emergency to address persistent trade deficits.

The order, enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), introduces a baseline tariff of 10% on imports from the majority of countries, set to take effect on April 5th, 2025. Furthermore, a system of higher “reciprocal” tariffs, ranging from 11% to 50%, will be applied to imports from 57 countries listed in Annex I of the order, commencing on April 9th, 2025.

These elevated tariffs are based on the Trump administration’s assessment of nonreciprocal or discriminatory trade practices.

Major trading partners of the United States will face significant increases, including China with a 34% tariff, the European Union at 20%, and Japan at 24%. These measures are in addition to the existing 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which have been in effect since March 12th, 2025, and a newly imposed 25% tariff on imported automobiles, effective April 3rd, 2025, with tariffs on key auto parts following on May 3rd, 2025. Certain categories of goods have been exempted from these new tariffs, including steel and aluminum articles already subject to Section 232 tariffs, as well as copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber articles, certain critical minerals, and energy and energy products. Additionally, the order eliminates the de minimis treatment for low-value imports from China and Hong Kong, effective May 2nd, 2025, signaling a further hardening of trade relations with these key economic regions.  

2.2 Potential Immediate Economic Consequences: The immediate aftermath of President Trump’s trade order is expected to bring about several significant economic consequences. A primary concern is the likely increase in consumer prices across a wide array of imported goods. Estimates suggest an average rise of 2.3%, which could translate to an annual cost of approximately $3,800 for US households.

This increase in the cost of living could dampen consumer spending and negatively impact overall economic activity. Furthermore, the tariffs are projected to reduce the rate of US economic growth in 2025, with forecasts indicating a potential decrease ranging from 0.5 to 0.9 percentage points.

The uncertainty surrounding these new trade policies, coupled with the potential for retaliatory actions from affected countries, has also elevated the risk of a recession in the US economy. Indeed, China has already announced its intention to implement countermeasures, raising the specter of an escalating trade war that could severely disrupt global trade flows and further depress economic growth.  

2.3 Potential Long-Term Economic Consequences: Looking beyond the immediate effects, the long-term economic consequences of President Trump’s trade order could be substantial. Some analyses suggest a persistent reduction in the long-term growth potential of the US economy, with the level of real GDP potentially shrinking by 0.4% to 0.6% annually.

In response to the new tariff landscape, multinational corporations may begin to re-evaluate their global supply chains and production strategies, potentially leading to a degree of reshoring of manufacturing activities back to the United States, although the extent and pace of this shift remain uncertain.

A significant concern is the risk of stagflation, a challenging economic condition characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of rising inflation, fueled by higher import costs, and economic stagnation, resulting from reduced trade and investment. Finally, the unpredictable nature of trade policy and its far-reaching macroeconomic implications are expected to contribute to continued volatility and uncertainty in financial markets for the foreseeable future.  

The sheer magnitude of these tariffs, representing the highest average effective rate since 1909 , signifies a profound departure from established trade principles that have guided global commerce for decades. This dramatic shift suggests potentially disruptive effects across various sectors of the economy and intricate global supply networks. Furthermore, the design of these tariffs as “reciprocal” measures, directly linked to the size of trade deficits with specific countries , could create significant hurdles for de-escalation. Framing the issue as a matter of fairness and demanding reciprocal actions from trading partners might make it politically challenging for the US to unilaterally reduce these tariffs, potentially leading to prolonged trade tensions and a stalemate in international trade relations.  

3. Arthur Hayes’ Analysis: Decoding the Impact on Gold and Bitcoin:

3.1 Hayes’ Initial Reaction and Key Arguments: Arthur Hayes, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency space and co-founder of BitMEX, offered his initial analysis of President Trump’s new trade order through a series of posts on X. Contrary to the widespread negative reaction in traditional markets, Hayes expressed a positive outlook, stating that he “loves tariffs” and believes they will ultimately be beneficial for Bitcoin and gold in the medium term.

His central argument revolves around the idea that these tariffs will exacerbate existing global economic imbalances, prompting central banks worldwide to engage in further monetary easing, effectively “printing money” to cushion the economic blow. This increase in fiat liquidity, Hayes contends, will create a favorable environment for Bitcoin as a prime beneficiary.

He also speculated that the current trade order and its ensuing market volatility might finally break the observed correlation between Bitcoin’s price movements and the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index, suggesting a growing independence for Bitcoin as an asset.

Furthermore, Hayes predicted a significant shift in the global financial landscape, suggesting a potential “end of US Treasuries” as the dominant reserve asset and a partial collapse in US stock valuations as foreign nations begin to sell off their dollar-denominated holdings.

He noted the immediate weakening of the US dollar index (DXY) following the tariff announcements, driven by international investors divesting from US equities and repatriating funds, a trend he believes will further enhance the appeal of alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold. Hayes also pointed to Bitcoin’s relative stability and resilience during the stock market sell-off as an early indication of its potential as a safe-haven asset in times of market turmoil.  

3.2 Hayes’ Rationale for Gold: Hayes’ rationale for including gold in his investment thesis centers on its enduring role as a neutral reserve asset, a status that he believes will be further solidified in the current global economic climate characterized by trade tensions.

A crucial factor in his analysis is gold’s inherent tariff-exempt status, which he argues will make it an increasingly attractive medium for governments and institutions to settle international trade transactions without incurring the newly imposed duties, especially in an era of rising protectionism.

Hayes also reiterates gold’s long-established reputation as a traditional safe-haven asset, consistently sought by investors as a reliable store of value and a hedge against inflation and broader economic uncertainties, a role he anticipates will be amplified in the face of potential market disruptions caused by Trump’s tariffs.  

https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-742186-20250406 https://www.tradingview.com/news/cryptonews:954f9ef79094b:0-bitmex-co-founder-arthur-hayes-loves-tariffs-says-this-is-good-for-bitcoin/ https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/04-04-2025-bitcoin-news-today-arthur-hayes-backs-trump-tariffs-as-a-bullish-trigger-for-bitcoin-price-22460703879561