Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin to Hit $1M by 2028 Amid U.S.-China Trade Tensions
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, has made a bold prediction: Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2028. This forecast, shared during his keynote at Token2049 in Dubai on April 30, 2025, is rooted in his analysis of global economic conditions, particularly the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Hayes believes the world is entering a phase of economic instability, driven by the U.S.’s expanding fiscal deficit and debt structure. He argues that these factors will lead to long-term inflation and asset repricing, positioning Bitcoin as a hedge against the decline of the dollar-dominated financial order.
The Role of U.S.-China Trade Dynamics
The term “hollow trade deal” likely refers to the perceived ineffectiveness of recent or ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. Hayes sees these tensions as destabilizing, with potential trade agreements lacking substance, exacerbating economic uncertainty. For instance, he has noted that U.S.-China trade wars could force governments to print more money, indirectly boosting Bitcoin’s value as a neutral asset.
This view aligns with his earlier statements, where he linked rising trade tensions to increased demand for decentralized assets like Bitcoin. The ongoing rivalry, marked by tariffs and geopolitical disputes, is seen as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s growth, especially as traditional financial systems face credibility challenges.
Economic Drivers Behind the Prediction
Hayes’ prediction hinges on the U.S. increasing dollar liquidity through measures similar to quantitative easing. He compares the current market to the third quarter of 2022, when the U.S. injected $2.5 trillion via its repo program to stabilize markets during financial uncertainty. He expects similar interventions, driven by rising government debt and spending demands, to fuel a rally in risk assets, including Bitcoin.
This liquidity, Hayes argues, will flow into cryptocurrencies, pushing Bitcoin’s price upward. He sees Bitcoin transitioning from a speculative asset to a hedging tool, benefiting from institutional adoption and market uncertainty.
