The current price of BTC, at $97,261.42, is close to the target but requires a 2.82% increase to reach $100,000. Historical data from recent hours shows volatility, with prices ranging from approximately $94,000 to $97,260.67 earlier today (May 7, 2025, at 00:26 UTC), indicating a potential for rapid movements. This price is crucial as it sets the baseline for evaluating whether Bitcoin can achieve the milestone before the FOMC announcement, which is approximately 11.6 hours away.
Technical Analysis and Market Trends
Technical indicators suggest a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. It is currently trading above the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the 200-day EMA located around $94,200, a level it has already surpassed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at approximately 70, nearing overbought territory but still indicating strong momentum. Analysts have identified a cup-and-handle pattern, a textbook bullish signal, suggesting a potential trend reversal from March lows and continued upward movement. The Directional Movement Index (+DI) also shows buyer conviction, supporting the possibility of a breakout.
Recent market analyses, such as those from CoinCodex, highlight Bitcoin’s potential to reach $120,904 by May 12, 2025, representing a 25.37% growth from current levels, which aligns with the possibility of hitting $100,000 sooner (CoinCodex – Bitcoin Price Prediction). However, short-term forecasts for today are less specific, with some suggesting consolidation between $90,000 and $92,000 before another leg up toward $95,000, though current prices are already above this range.
FOMC Announcement Impact and Market Sentiment
The FOMC announcement, expected at 18:00 UTC, is a significant event that could influence financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Historically, Bitcoin reacts to monetary policy decisions, often seen as a risk-on asset. Fixed income markets anticipate interest rate cuts in 2025, most likely starting in June, with the May 7 announcement seen as less likely to deliver cuts, maintaining rates at 4.25% to 4.5% (Forbes – Fed’s 2025 Meeting Schedule). This suggests the announcement may not trigger a significant negative reaction, potentially allowing Bitcoin to continue its upward trend. However, traders might adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to increased volatility or consolidation before the announcement.
Market sentiment is generally bullish, with institutional adoption and ETF inflows, such as $1.9 billion in early January 2025, contributing to demand (Cryptonews – Bitcoin Price Prediction). Bitcoin exchange outflows have also increased, indicating strong stockpiling, which supports price appreciation. Yet, psychological resistance at $100,000 could pose a challenge, especially with the time constraint before the FOMC announcement.
Supporting Factors and Challenges
Several factors contribute to the possibility of Bitcoin breaking $100,000. First, the current price is already at $97,261.42, requiring only a 2.82% increase, which is achievable in cryptocurrency markets within hours, given historical precedents like the 2021 surge from $50,000 to $60,000 in less than 24 hours. Second, technical indicators and recent price rallies from below $80,000 to over $97,000 suggest strong momentum, with RSI trends supporting upward movement (Coinpedia – Bitcoin Price Prediction). Third, seasonality data shows May historically delivers positive returns, with an average of 7.4% from 2013 to 2024, though recent years have been mixed (Finance Magnates – Bitcoin Price Prediction May 2025).
Challenges include potential pre-announcement caution, where traders might take profits or wait for the FOMC outcome, limiting upward movement. Additionally, if the announcement surprises with hawkish signals, it could negatively impact risk assets like Bitcoin, though this is seen as less likely given current expectations.
