Bitcoin dominance is a key metric that reflects the relative market share of Bitcoin compared to all other cryptocurrencies, often referred to as altcoins. It is calculated as (Bitcoin Market Cap / Total Market Cap of All Cryptocurrencies) * 100. For example, if Bitcoin’s market cap is $1.2 trillion and the total crypto market cap is $1.5 trillion, the dominance is 80%. Historically, Bitcoin dominance has fluctuated, starting near 100% in 2009 when it was the only cryptocurrency, and declining as altcoins like Ethereum and Litecoin emerged (What is Bitcoin (BTC) Dominance? Effects on the Crypto Market | BiLira).
As of recent data, Bitcoin dominance has been volatile, with peaks and troughs corresponding to market cycles. For instance, in early 2024, dominance was above 70%, but by April 2024, it had dropped below 50%, according to Statista (Bitcoin dominance 2013-2024 | Statista). However, as of May 5, 2025, it recently peaked at 71% and is now at approximately 64%, based on analyst charts like those from Rekt Capital (BTC dominance due ‘collapse’ at 71%: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week | Cointelegraph).
Current State of BTC Dominance
Recent analyses indicate that Bitcoin dominance reached 71% in the weeks leading up to May 5, 2025, but has since declined to around 64%. This figure is supported by Cointelegraph’s report, which cites Rekt Capital’s chart showing dominance at 64% after a retest, following a peak at 71% (BTC dominance due ‘collapse’ at 71%: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week | Cointelegraph). Additionally, CoinMarketCap’s API data, as of the latest available, shows dominance at approximately 67%, suggesting slight variations depending on the source and timing (Bitcoin Dominance | CoinMarketCap). This decline from 71% aligns with the user’s mention of a “collapse,” indicating a significant shift in market dynamics.
Reasons Behind the Predicted Collapse
The prediction of a collapse in Bitcoin dominance from 71% is based on historical patterns and current market conditions. Analysts, including Rekt Capital, have noted that Bitcoin dominance often peaks around the 58-71% range before experiencing sharp declines, a pattern observed in three previous cycles (Bitcoin Dominance To Top At 71%, Analyst Says Altseason Never Returning! | The Coin Republic). For instance, the Coin Republic article highlights that whenever dominance enters this range, it pushes toward the upper boundary before reversing, suggesting a potential drop to as low as 40% in the coming months (Bitcoin Dominance At Risk Of Crash To 40%, Why This Is Good For Ethereum, XRP, And Altcoins | NewsBTC).
Several factors contribute to this prediction:
- Investor Behavior: After a period of high Bitcoin dominance, investors often take profits from Bitcoin and move capital into altcoins, seeking higher returns. This rotation is evident in the recent attention on Ethereum, with ETH/BTC trading near levels not seen since 2019, as mentioned in Cointelegraph (BTC dominance due ‘collapse’ at 71%: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week | Cointelegraph).
- Altcoin Developments: New projects and developments in the altcoin space, such as Ethereum’s scaling solutions or Solana’s ecosystem growth, can attract investment, reducing Bitcoin’s relative dominance.
- Market Sentiment: High Bitcoin dominance often reflects a “Bitcoin season,” where Bitcoin outperforms other assets. A collapse could signal a shift to an “altcoin season,” where altcoins gain market share, driven by bullish sentiment for riskier assets (Bitcoin Dominance Chart: Live Data | Milk Road).
Rekt Capital’s analysis, shared on X, predicts that dominance is in its “final leg” of its macro uptrend before a major collapse, with the road to 71% continuing on a successful retest of 64% (BTC dominance due ‘collapse’ at 71%: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week | Cointelegraph). This suggests that the current 64% level is a critical juncture, potentially leading to further declines.
