Bybit, founded in 2018, is the world’s second-largest crypto exchange by trading volume and is particularly popular for derivatives trading. It has been a significant player in the crypto space, especially for institutional and high-net-worth investors. On December 2024, Bybit announced that users in mainland China can trade freely on the platform without the use of a VPN, though yuan trades are not permitted, indicating its adaptation to China’s regulatory environment (Cointelegraph: Weaker yuan is ‘bullish for BTC’ as Chinese capital flocks to crypto — Bybit CEO).
The relationship between the Chinese yuan (CNY) and Bitcoin has been noted in past economic cycles. Historical instances, such as the yuan devaluations in 2013 and 2015, saw increased capital flight from China into Bitcoin, driven by investors seeking to hedge against currency devaluation and move capital out of the country. This pattern is well-documented by analysts like Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, who suggested similar dynamics could play out in 2025 (Cointelegraph: Bitcoin rebounds as traders spot China ‘weaker yuan’ chart, but US trade war caps $80K BTC rally).
The Current Situation: US Tariffs and Yuan Depreciation
- US Tariffs: On April 6, 2025, President Donald Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs, including a baseline 10% on imports and up to 50% for certain countries, escalating US-China trade tensions. This move has led to global market volatility, with stock markets tumbling and cryptocurrencies experiencing significant price swings.
- China’s Response: In response, China has allowed the yuan to weaken against the US dollar. On April 8, 2025, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the daily yuan fix at 7.2038 per dollar, the weakest since September 2024, as reported by CoinDesk (CoinDesk: Is This the Catalyst Bitcoin Bulls Have Been Waiting for? China Allows Yuan to Fall Below 7.2 per U.S. Dollar). This depreciation is seen as a strategic move to make Chinese exports more competitive and counterbalance the impact of US tariffs.
Ben Zhou’s Statement and Its Implications
Ben Zhou’s statement, made on X on April 8, 2025, was, “China will try to lower RMB to counter the tariff. Historically, whenever RMB drops, a lot of Chinese capital flows into BTC. Bullish for BTC” (Cryptotimes: Ben Zhou Bullish on Bitcoin as Chinese Capital Faces Tariff Woes). This aligns with the view that a weaker yuan could drive increased demand for Bitcoin from Chinese investors, who may see it as a hedge against currency devaluation and a way to diversify their holdings.
- Historical Precedent: The statement references past instances where yuan devaluation led to capital flight into Bitcoin, notably in 2013 and 2015. During these periods, Chinese investors, facing currency risks, moved significant capital into cryptocurrencies, boosting BTC prices.
- Current Market Dynamics: On April 8, 2025, Bitcoin briefly rebounded after a period of volatility, with analysts at 10x Research suggesting that the yuan’s depreciation could spark renewed interest in Bitcoin, drawing parallels to historical patterns (Coinpedia: Bitcoin Analysts Spot Big Opportunity as China’s Yuan Hits Lowest Level Since 2023).
